Archive for October, 2004

Saturday, October 30th, 2004

Alright folks, I’m about to sit down and decide who is going to be our next president. Yes, that’s right… when none of the news networks or even their pollsters have the balls to make the call, I’m about to do just that. And mark my words: I’ll be correct. Watch me.

No, I’m not going to make a random call. I’ve spent a couple hours reviewing every fucking poll I can find for each of the battle ground states and now I’m prepared to play out a couple of scenarios.

Before I can create any scenarios, I have to make several assumptions with regard to states that everyone seems to feel pretty confidently will go one way or another. I’ll start with the most obvious and work my way down. It’s a given that Kerry will take California, Connecticut, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. That’s 146 electoral votes for Kerry. It’s a given that Bush will take 18 states of his own, which I’m not going to list out here. This gives Bush 144 electoral votes. Pretty even ground so far. Kerry is damn likely to take Delaware, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Washington. That’s another 33 for Kerry. Bush is just as likely to take Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Virginia. 49 for Bush. Here’s where things get a bit iffy. Maine, Michigan, and Oregon are all leaning towards Kerry. That’s 28 for him. Colorado, North Carolina, and West Virginia are all leaning towards Bush. So, 29 for Bush.

Now… based on all of the above, which is an almost, kind-of, but not really safe bet, Kerry has 207 and Bush has 222. Keep in mind that it takes a majority of 270 to win.

Here’s where the fun begins. There are 9 states left that represent a whopping 109 electoral votes. They will be the ones to decide the election, but the pollsters are all too pussy to call them because they know that if they’re wrong, it’ll look like shit. Well, I don’t give a fuck how I look… So, based on all the poll data I could find, here’s how I’m calling them… Zogby, Research 2000, ARG, and Gallop all give Iowa to Bush by a margin of approximately a single point. Not much of a margin, but since they all agree, 7 for Bush. Zogby, Rasmussen, and Research 2000, and some radio polls give Nevada to Bush by a larger margin. Another 5 for Bush. UNH Tracking, Franklin-Pierce, Rasmussen are giving New Hampshire to Kerry. 4 more for Kerry. I’m tired of listing specific polls. Bush gets New Mexico… that’s 5 more. Kerry gets Pennsylvania in several polls by a margin of 3 points. Score 21 for Kerry.

Now… after all that… Bush is at 239 and Kerry is at 232, and 4 states are still left. This is so close it’s fucking ridiculous. The states I haven’t called are within a fraction of a percentage, which is so close that no polls agree. The problem is that none of the states are small. Minnesota and Wisconsin are both worth 10 votes, Ohio is worth 20, and the bastard state of Florida is worth 27. These states can’t be ignored. So, here’s where the scenarios begin.

My first scenario is – and at this point I’m basically just guessing – Kerry takes Minnesota, Kerry takes Wisconsin, Kerry takes Ohio, and Bush takes Florida. This would result in a win for Kerry. However, if Bush wins any of the three that I just gave to Bush, he takes all.

There are two more complications to keep in mind. One is that a lot of the polls I considered tend to lean liberal. If that holds true this year, Bush will win one of my four true battleground states. Second is that these polls do not include cell phone users. That means that a lot of kids my age, who have completely abandoned land lines for cell phones, have not been included in the polls. K5 had a good article about this. Kids my around age (19) tend to lean liberal. So, this could mean a surprise bounce for Kerry.

One thing that I haven’t mentioned yet, which happens to be one of the most important things to consider, is the incumbent rule. The Incumbent Rule, as I understand it, basically states that in an election involving an incumbent, people tend to consider whether or not they want to keep the incumbent before even beginning to consider the possibility of voting for the challenger. If voters think both candidates suck, they tend to break for the challenger at the last minute. I’ve heard a lot of people say they hate both candidates *cough* Michael Moore and followers *cough*, so this could result in the jump Kerry needs to take a majority of the final four. A better explanation of the incumbent rule and evidence to support it can be found here.

All in all, this is the closest race I’ve ever heard of and will probably be the closest race all of us will live to see. All things considered, unless a major news event occurs, which is *very* possible, I’m betting that Kerry will win.

Thursday, October 28th, 2004

So, you’ve got it all figured out. You’ve heard the word on the street. We have a moron in office and you can’t wait to get him out – never mind that his standardized test scores are much higher than Kerry’s. You’ve participated in all the jokes. You went to see Fahrenheit 9/11. You’ve accepted it as truth. You talked about it with all your friends. Well, now it’s time to WAKE THE FUCK UP. I hate to break it to everyone, but spending an hour and a half listening to Micheal Moore bash our president does not constitute a reason to walk around with the idea that you know what you’re talking about. I’m sick and tired of these young slaves of ignorance running around regurgitating, almost verbatim, the bullshit Moore fed them.

Don’t worry. There’s still hope. Yes, even for you. Follow along:

Do not vote based on what you saw in Moore’s movie without watching this first

Friday, October 22nd, 2004

Just went clubbin with Katie… Tiki Bob’s is never as good as Banana Joe’s… Tiki’s music sucks and Joe’s always has hotter girls.
I’m looking forward to this weekend… I still haven’t told my parents I’m going to Nashville yet, but I suspect they’ll figure it out… Right now I’m hungry and tired. Night.

Monday, October 18th, 2004

Drunken Boxing 1
Originally uploaded by Chris Brunner.

I got my phone back… the pictures are really shitty, but I’m not gonna walk around a party with a digital camera… Phreaknic 8 is this weekend! BJ and I are gonna make the trek. Call me if you’d like to come.

Monday, October 18th, 2004

This weekend wasn’t bad. Joseph’s party was pretty dope. Lots of dancing… lots of new numbers… drunken boxing… I’d include pictures, but I left my phone at Katie’s house tonight.

The SD server has been acting up for the first time in a few years… the problem is resolved, but I couldn’t post to my blog all weekend and my last post — which I wrote on Wednesday — wasn’t displayed for LiveJournal users until last night. At least things are working again…

Sorush bought a new car… a mint-condition Saturn with about 60k miles on it… It’s much better than the VW he picked out the last time, but we’re gonna see if we can sell it on eBay for a few thousand more than what he paid. Why not? It worked the last time.

I’m supposed to wake up in four hours (yeah right.) to meet some people at the gym… So, I’m gonna hit the sack. Hope everyone’s weekends went well… night.

Wednesday, October 13th, 2004

This weekend is gonna be SO dope. It has the potential to be better than the last, but only one person could make that happen.
So… Thursday I’m going up to frat row at BSC… that’s always fun, but this time I’ll get to spend time with someone I can’t stop thinking about…
Then Joseph and I are headed to Auburn for Part 1 of his 21st birthday! Hell. Yeah.
That’s right… Joseph is turning 21 this weekend and his friends are throwing him a massive two-day party. Part 1 will be in Auburn and Part 2 will be in Tuscaloosa, around the Alabama campus. This is gonna be so ridiculously awesome.
That girl I met in Tuscaloosa, whose name I couldn’t remember, called and invited me to her house Saturday, but I’m not sure how I’m gonna fit that in. Anyhow, it’s bound to be a damn good time. Call me if you need directions to Part 1 or 2 of Joseph’s party.

Saturday, October 9th, 2004

Wow. I don’t even know what to say. Incredible. I hope this was a night of great beginnings.

Friday, October 8th, 2004

Great night. I’m not really sober yet. ATO parties are the shit. I met a lot of cute chicks, but I’ll probably only remember one or two names in the morning. Right now I remember Rebecka and Brooke. I need sleep.
Oh yeah, tomorrow is Drain Bammage. I was told I have to be there… so I think I’ll show up. Maybe if Katie is feeling any better I’ll bring her with me.

Thursday, October 7th, 2004

I had this great relationship with a girl and I managed to bungle it up by telling her that I think I like her. Why the hell did I do that? I value her friendship a lot, and now things will never be the same. I wish I could go back an hour and erase it.

Wednesday, October 6th, 2004